Roadmap structure

Policy development and consultation

The Roadmap activities often describe actions or outcomes related to regulatory needs, using terms like 'review', 'integrate', 'regulate', 'apply', or 'develop'. No matter the wording, these activities are part of a broader policy and regulatory process.

This process will usually include:

• defining and analysing the problem
• comparing to international best practices
• developing a policy position
• consulting internally and externally – we consult on all major regulatory changes
• revising and updating
• publishing the outcome
• reviewing and adjusting as operations, technology, or other factors change to ensure policies remain fit for purpose.

These steps may happen in a different order or at the same time. We may repeat steps based on feedback. Publications may take different forms, including temporary management instructions, changes to the Manual of Standards (MOS), Advisory Circulars, general exemptions, or instruments. Transitional arrangements help make sure regulations evolve as needed, as set out in the Regulatory change section.

Under the Legislation Act 2003, we must ensure that all legislative instruments go through appropriate consultation. We are also required to publicly consult on MOS instruments for at least 4 weeks, unless exceptions apply. We will also communicate major rule changes being considered via the Forward Regulatory Program.

The terms used in the Roadmap, such as 'review' or 'regulate,' reflect the progress expected over time. These terms do not pre-determine a policy decision or bypass the regulatory process. In fast-evolving sectors like RPAS and AAM, regular review, revision, and iteration are expected.

For more details, see 'How CASA changes the rules' which explains our procedures, including consultation with industry and the public.

Time horizons

Australia was one of the first countries to create laws for operating remotely piloted aircraft. Many operations that are expected to become widespread in the future are already happening here, though only on a limited scale.

While we have played a key role in supporting the growth of these sectors, we must keep up with the rapid changes by maintaining a flexible and responsive regulatory framework.

We need to efficiently scale our regulatory processes to handle the growing number of interactions with industry effectively.

Each 'time horizon' includes an assessment of how the RPAS and AAM sectors will evolve. Industry has also released an AAM Industry Vision and Roadmap including its assessment on the evolution of AAM in Australia.

Immediate term – 2024 to 2026

Over the next 2 years, we expect the volume of RPAS flights to increase due to the rise in goods delivery services. Advances in technology will make RPAS more efficient, affordable, and capable of flying longer distances. This is likely to boost the use of larger RPAS in the commercial sector. Meanwhile, we expect the use of RPAS and model aircraft for sport, recreation, and education to remain strong.

There will be greater demand for approvals of commercial operations beyond the standard operating conditions, and advanced operations we have not assessed before. The focus will likely shift toward implementing systems and services to support more complex operations in shared airspace.

This includes the use of RPAS to:

• play critical roles in firefighting, emergency services and public safety
• reduce costs in mining and agriculture
• conduct inspections on critical infrastructure, or in locations that are inaccessible or dangerous.

We expect a rise in demand for approvals related to:

• extended visual line of sight
• beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS)
• higher risk and larger RPAS
• increased automation, including one operator to multiple aircraft-type operations
• operations above 400 ft
• operations over and near people
• operations from or near aerodromes
• RPAS platform development and testing activities
• other new and advanced operations.

Some of these operations will present greater challenges around safety mitigations. We may see more use of micro-RPA for commercial activities. This increase will likely be driven by:

• advancements in technology
• lower aircraft costs
• fewer regulatory restrictions.

Ongoing review of the legislative framework will help address current and future challenges as operations mature.

Many companies worldwide are developing and designing aircraft types that can carry out AAM passenger and cargo operations, including in Australia. As AAM evolves, the sector will need clearer certification pathways and safety regulations, especially as operations are expected to start in Australia soon.

This will present new challenges as the regulatory approach for RPAS operations overlaps with traditional aircraft operations. The industry will first look to certify large remotely piloted aircraft.

We must consider what this means across:

• airspace design
• airspace services
• licensing
• operational approvals
• take-off and landing infrastructure
• maintenance
• flight rules
• aircraft and aircraft systems certification.

There will also be new or increased safety risks to consider in areas like cybersecurity and automation.

These emerging technologies and operations will challenge industry. They need to build social license for these new use cases among local communities and other stakeholders.

Industry will also need to meet the regulatory requirements at all levels of government including:

• national
• state
• territory
• local.

Immediate term priority outcomes:

• continue to review the efficiency and timeliness of application processing
• continue to streamline and clarify RPAS BVLOS pathways
• establish foundational regulatory policy for AAM consistent with peer national aviation authorities (NAAs)
• develop clear pathways to enable test-flights and development operations.

Near term – 2027 to 2029

In the following 3 years, we expect AAM operations to launch in Australia. This will introduce the first commercial applications, including passenger transport in urban areas. Approval processes for small to medium RPAS will become clearer and more aligned with national and international regulations. This will help pave the way for Australian-registered RPAS and AAM aircraft to start international operations during this period.

The industry will look to certify piloted AAM aircraft by type. It is likely that further planning and development will progress for vertiports and other supporting infrastructure.

The AAM sector will start showing its benefits through trials, education, and demonstrations. There is potential to:

• introduce new aerial services to remote and hard-to-reach communities
• improve and expand existing air transport options to enhance connectivity.

Emerging technologies and operations will continue to present challenges for industry. They will need to build social licence for new use cases with local communities and other aviation sector participants.

Industry will need to keep meeting the regulatory requirements at all levels of government including:

• national
• state
• territory
• local.

Medium term – 2030 to 2033

By 2030, most currently known use cases for remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) are expected to be mature with expansive access to lower-level airspace and supporting regulations in place. Technologies enabling extended visual line of sight (EVLOS) and beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) operations in shared airspace, across both urban and rural environments, will be commonplace.

As operations mature, better data will be collected to improve safety assessments processes and systems.

Requirements for training will change as more complex operations introduce new technologies and increasing levels of automation. Competencies and skillsets will need to evolve from what has been learned before. 

Research and development activities will continue with testing of even more complex operations and larger platforms, as well as higher levels of autonomy.

The commercial advanced air mobility (AAM) sector will continue to mature. It will expand to include multiple scheduled passenger transport applications supported by safe and efficient transport routes.

The first fully autonomous aircraft may be introduced on a limited scale.

Long term – beyond 2034

By the mid-2030s, we expect to see higher numbers of RPAS of different designs, purposes, and capabilities operating in the airspace. This technology will offer further efficiencies for labour-intensive operations.

Advancements in technology will also increase the diversity of aircraft. This will blur the lines between RPAS, AAM and traditional aircraft. Hybrid designs will emerge as operators see the commercial benefits these new technologies offer.

As the AAM sector grows, we will see highly automated vehicles entering service on a small scale, gradually expanding over time.

Operations will provide high quality data. This data will support informed safety decisions as the RPAS and AAM sectors continue to expand and develop.

Regulatory areas

There are 6 regulatory areas considered in the ongoing development of Australia's future RPAS and AAM regulatory framework.

These areas will guide the activities in this Roadmap:

1. Safety and resilience
2. Aircraft and aircraft systems
3. Airspace and traffic management
4. Operations
5. Infrastructure
6. People.